Can I see the northern lights tonight in Wales?
Unlikely in Wales tonight.
NOAA's Kp forecast peaks at 3 during Wales's dark hours tonight. Across the 3 Wales cities we cover, the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon at Kp 7 to 8.
Green: NOAA OVATION aurora model, forecast for 03:41 UTC 5 Nov (a 30 to 90 minute nowcast; the oval moves and brightens through the night). Dots: our verdict for tonight from the Kp forecast.
City by city
| City | Mag. lat. | Kp needed horizon / overhead | Peak Kp tonight | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhondda | 48.0° | 7 / 9 | 2.67 | Unlikely |
| Swansea | 48.0° | 7 / 9 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Cardiff | 47.8° | 8 / – | 2.67 | Unlikely |
Kp needed: the Kp at which the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon, and overhead. Peak Kp: NOAA's highest forecast 3-hour Kp in each city's dark hours tonight.
Kp forecast
NOAA planetary K-index, observed and forecast, in Swansea local time, with Swansea's thresholds.
Questions
Can I see the northern lights tonight in Wales?
Unlikely at best, from Swansea. NOAA's Kp forecast peaks at 3 during Wales's dark hours tonight. Across the 3 Wales cities we cover, the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon at Kp 7 to 8. You also need a clear, dark view to the north.
What Kp do you need to see the northern lights in Wales?
About Kp 7 in the north of Wales and Kp 8 in the south to see it low on the northern horizon; stronger storms bring it overhead.
Where is the best place to see it?
Somewhere dark with a clear view north, away from town lights. In Wales, the further north you go, the lower the Kp you need.
Northern lights tonight in the UK → · Aurora forecast this week
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (planetary K-index forecast, 3-day forecast, 27-day outlook, OVATION aurora model). Magnetic latitudes: AACGM-v2. Darkness and Moon computed with Skyfield and JPL DE440. We do not forecast clouds: you need a clear view to the north. How the verdict is made.