Can I see the northern lights tonight in Ontario?
Possible, low in the north from Thunder Bay.
NOAA's Kp forecast peaks at 3 during Ontario's dark hours tonight. Across the 17 Ontario cities we cover, the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon at Kp 3 to 6.
Green: NOAA OVATION aurora model, forecast for 03:41 UTC 5 Nov (a 30 to 90 minute nowcast; the oval moves and brightens through the night). Dots: our verdict for tonight from the Kp forecast.
City by city
| City | Mag. lat. | Kp needed horizon / overhead | Peak Kp tonight | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder Bay | 57.5° | 3 / 5 | 3 | Possible |
| Greater Sudbury | 55.4° | 4 / 6 | 3 | Long shot |
| Ottawa | 53.7° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Barrie | 53.2° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Peterborough, Ontario | 53.0° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Newmarket | 52.9° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Caledon | 52.8° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Kingston, Ontario | 52.7° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Oshawa | 52.7° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Toronto | 52.5° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Mississauga | 52.5° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Kitchener | 52.4° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Hamilton | 52.2° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Brantford | 52.1° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| London, Ontario | 52.0° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| St. Catharines | 52.0° | 5 / 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Windsor | 51.5° | 6 / 8 | 3 | Unlikely |
Kp needed: the Kp at which the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon, and overhead. Peak Kp: NOAA's highest forecast 3-hour Kp in each city's dark hours tonight.
Kp forecast
NOAA planetary K-index, observed and forecast, in Thunder Bay local time, with Thunder Bay's thresholds.
Questions
Can I see the northern lights tonight in Ontario?
Possible at best, from Thunder Bay. NOAA's Kp forecast peaks at 3 during Ontario's dark hours tonight. Across the 17 Ontario cities we cover, the aurora usually reaches the northern horizon at Kp 3 to 6. You also need a clear, dark view to the north.
What Kp do you need to see the northern lights in Ontario?
About Kp 3 in the north of Ontario and Kp 6 in the south to see it low on the northern horizon; stronger storms bring it overhead.
Where is the best place to see it?
Somewhere dark with a clear view north, away from town lights. In Ontario, the further north you go, the lower the Kp you need.
Northern lights tonight in Canada → · Aurora forecast this week
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (planetary K-index forecast, 3-day forecast, 27-day outlook, OVATION aurora model). Magnetic latitudes: AACGM-v2. Darkness and Moon computed with Skyfield and JPL DE440. We do not forecast clouds: you need a clear view to the north. How the verdict is made.