Will an asteroid hit Earth?
Asteroid impact risk: the Sentry list
JPL's Sentry system tracks 2,230 objects with a non-zero computed impact probability over the next century or so. None of them rates above 0 on the Torino scale (0 = no hazard). The highest-ranked by the Palermo scale is 1950 DA, at -0.98 (below −2 means no concern, and the score is a logarithm).
Highest-ranked by the Palermo scale
| Object | Possible years | Impact chance (all) | Palermo | Torino | Size | Last observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 DA | 2880-2880 | 1 in 2,997 | -0.98 | 0 | 1.3 km | 2026-10-20 |
| Bennu (1999 RQ36) | 2178-2290 | 1 in 1,749 | -1.40 | 0 | 490 m | 2020-10-3. |
| 2008 JL3 | 2027-2122 | 1 in 6,031 | -2.38 | 0 | 29 m | 2008-05-09 |
| 1979 XB | 2056-2113 | 1 in 1,174,376 | -2.69 | 0 | 660 m | 1979-12-15 |
| 2000 SG344 | 2069-2122 | 1 in 365 | -2.76 | 0 | 37 m | 2000-10-03 |
| 2010 RF12 | 2095-2122 | 1 in 10 | -2.96 | 0 | 7 m | 2022-08-24 |
| 2007 FT3 | 2030-2119 | 1 in 1,291,265 | -3.00 | 0 | 340 m | 2007-03-21 |
| 2022 PX1 | 2040-2040 | 1 in 309,502 | -3.07 | 0 | 120 m | 2022-08-12 |
| 2005 QK76 | 2030-2059 | 1 in 14,175 | -3.10 | 0 | 31 m | 2005-08-31 |
| 2021 GX9 | 2032-2052 | 1 in 12,162 | -3.18 | 0 | 29 m | 2021-04-17 |
| 2024 TK5 | 2028-2028 | 1 in 2,988 | -3.45 | 0 | 10 m | 2024-10-08 |
| 2023 DO | 2057-2092 | 1 in 2,198 | -3.55 | 0 | 26 m | 2023-03-26 |
| 2019 VB37 | 2049-2067 | 1 in 17,550 | -3.59 | 0 | 43 m | 2019-11-03 |
| 2008 UB7 | 2044-2101 | 1 in 29,547 | -3.60 | 0 | 58 m | 2008-10-31 |
| 2023 BZ | 2026-2026 | 1 in 26,192 | -3.62 | 0 | 16 m | 2023-02-01 |
| 2007 DX40 | 2035-2122 | 1 in 12,892 | -3.63 | 0 | 40 m | 2007-03-02 |
| 2024 JW16 | 2082-2121 | 1 in 431,803 | -3.63 | 0 | 220 m | 2024-05-16 |
| 2016 YM4 | 2121-2121 | 1 in 74,738 | -3.68 | 0 | 110 m | 2017-02-02 |
| 2000 SB45 | 2067-2118 | 1 in 6,310 | -3.70 | 0 | 46 m | 2000-09-29 |
| 2012 HG2 | 2052-2126 | 1 in 373 | -3.70 | 0 | 14 m | 2012-05-29 |
| 2026 CQ4 | 2072-2125 | 1 in 199 | -3.72 | 0 | 10 m | 2026-03-22 |
| 2008 EX5 | 2056-2093 | 1 in 18,792 | -3.76 | 0 | 59 m | 2008-04-06 |
| 2007 KE4 | 2029-2096 | 1 in 50,976 | -3.76 | 0 | 31 m | 2007-05-26 |
| 2025 BA1 | 2032-2116 | 1 in 2,824 | -3.76 | 0 | 10 m | 2025-01-22 |
| 2025 DT2 | 2044-2071 | 1 in 2,258 | -3.77 | 0 | 16 m | 2025-09-17 |
Impact chance: Sentry's cumulative probability over all listed dates. Size: Sentry's estimate. 2,118 of the 2,230 objects are under 50 m; many were observed only briefly years ago and are lost, which keeps them listed.
How to read this
Sentry is NASA JPL's automated system that looks for possible future impacts of every known near-Earth asteroid over about the next 100 years. A listing means an impact cannot yet be ruled out, not that one is expected. This site quotes impact risk from Sentry only; flyby distances on the other asteroid pages come from JPL's close-approach data.
Questions
Is an asteroid going to hit Earth?
No known asteroid is predicted to hit Earth. JPL's Sentry system tracks 2,230 objects with a non-zero computed impact probability over the next century or so. None of them rates above 0 on the Torino scale (0 = no hazard). The highest-ranked by the Palermo scale is 1950 DA, at -0.98 (below −2 means no concern, and the score is a logarithm).
What is the Torino scale?
A 0–10 scale for communicating impact hazard to the public. 0 means no hazard (or too small to matter); 1 means a routine discovery that merits monitoring and will very likely drop to 0 with more observations. Higher values need a real chance of a damaging impact.
What is the Palermo scale?
A technical, logarithmic scale that compares an object's impact risk with the background risk from all asteroids of that size until the possible impact date. −2 is 1% of background; 0 equals background. Values below −2 are of no concern.
Why do objects leave the list?
Most entries are based on a few nights of observations. As more observations narrow the orbit, the possible impacts are usually ruled out and the object is removed. Apophis was removed in 2021 after radar measurements.
Source: NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring, Sentry API. Data fetched 4 Nov 2026, 18:20 UTC; refreshed daily.